Regular season

Nathan Bastian

- · RW · #11

Bottom-six playerWrecking Ball?85 hits (16.4/60) - physically tilts every shift

HT: 6'4"
WT: 217 lb
Age: 28
Shoots: R
From: Kitchener, CAN
Draft: 2016 NJD · R2 #41

55Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

3333pctl

1717pctl

1717pctl

2626pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.1915pctl

0.1744pctl

0.031pctl

0.75pctl

+473pctl

016pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

2.9%30pctl

0.8516pctl

0.0414pctl

Def Suppression?

0.2627pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

4.813pctl

16.493pctl

0.091pctl

1.3429pctl

0:014pctl

0:004pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 20 GP tracked · 3h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

44.6%14pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

63.6%94pctl

O-zone deployment?

40%17pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

16.5 min4pctl

Support received?

15.8 min94pctl

D-zone deployment?

60%83pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0641pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.7044pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.2743pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.06/gm98pctl

Pressure escape rate?

3.4%0pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 311 EV min

General Offense

4.8336

6.7637

Shot Setups/60?

0.7740

Chance Setups/60?

0.5838

Primary Contributions/60?

5.6036

Rebounds Created/60?

0.5861

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0034

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.3934

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.1935

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0040

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.0028

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.3548

Rush Offense/60?

4.2523

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.7758

1.3574

0.3974

Deflections/60?

1.9368

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.1962

Entries Finished/60?

0.1923

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.0022

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

0.1922

0.0024

0.1923

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0039

Forechecking

12.3676

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0044

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Nathan Bastian	55	Wrecking Ball	7 P · 36 GP	-	$1.16M	-	this player
Jacob Melanson	54	Wrecking Ball	5 P · 36 GP	$0.83M	$1.03M	C+$0.2M	90%
Tanner Pearson	55	Depth Forward	15 P · 56 GP	-	$1.16M	-	89%
Ryan Lomberg	51	Wrecking Ball	9 P · 57 GP	$2.00M	$0.86M	D−$1.1M	87%
Cole Reinhardt	55	Depth Forward	15 P · 59 GP	$0.81M	$1.16M	C+$0.3M	87%

Chemistry

Finishes from

assisters on Nathan’s goals

Creates for

goals Nathan assisted on

Jason Robertson11 as primary

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

3 pts · 2 G · 1 A · 5 shots in last 10Steady(-0.2 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ VAN

0P

0G 0A

@ VAN 03-02

0G 0A · 0 shots · 13:50 TOI

@ CGY

1P

1G 0A

@ CGY 03-03

1G 0A · 1 shots · 11:33 TOI

vs COL

0P

0G 0A

vs COL 03-06

0G 0A · 0 shots · 8:16 TOI

vs CHI

1P

1G 0A

vs CHI 03-08

1G 0A · 2 shots · 11:32 TOI

vs DET

0P

0G 0A

vs DET 03-14

0G 0A · 0 shots · 7:33 TOI

@ COL

1P

0G 1A

@ COL 03-18

0G 1A · 0 shots · 9:14 TOI

@ MIN

0P

0G 0A

@ MIN 03-21

0G 0A · 0 shots · 9:16 TOI

vs VGK

0P

0G 0A

vs VGK 03-22

0G 0A · 0 shots · 8:43 TOI

@ NYI

0P

0G 0A

@ NYI 03-26

0G 0A · 2 shots · 8:32 TOI

@ PIT

0P

0G 0A

@ PIT 03-28

0G 0A · 0 shots · 4:02 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)44 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 3 of 6 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 5 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 11 blocks · 0 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2018-19	New Jersey Devils	7	3	0	3	0
2020-21	New Jersey Devils	41	3	7	10	0
2021-22	Seattle Kraken	12	1	1	2	-1
2021-22	New Jersey Devils	60	11	5	16	-11
2022-23	New Jersey Devils	43	6	9	15	7
2023-24	New Jersey Devils	54	5	7	12	-10
2024-25	New Jersey Devils	59	4	6	10	-4
2025-26	Dallas Stars	36	6	1	7	4
Career	3 teams	312	39	36	75	-15