Game Lab
Every shot with xG, win probability, player impact, and 3D replays
Tampa Bay Lightning 5@Toronto Maple Leafs 2
2026-03-07TBL · TOR
CF%?
54.4%·45.6%
xGF%?
57.2%·42.8%
HDCF%?
58.1%·41.9%
5v5 xGF%?
53.8%·46.2%
5v5 CF%?
54.3%·45.7%
?
TOR wins ↑TBL wins ↓
TBL 56%Deserved to win?44% TOR
the game's chances, replayed · 2.98 xG vs 2.67 xG
The Impact Report?
every skater, rated by our model
TBL 5@TOR 2
The Impact Report · hockeyalpha.com
2026-03-07 · Game Alpha: one night on the 40-99 scale
★ 1st star · our model’s pickNikita KucherovTBL · 4A · 0.15 ixG · 2 gv88
★ 2nd star · our model’s pickAnthony CirelliTBL · 2A · 0.34 ixG · 3 blk86
★ 3rd star · our model’s pickBrandon HagelTBL · 1G · 1A · 0.86 ixG82TBL
1Nikita Kucherov882Anthony Cirelli863Brandon Hagel824
Jake Guentzel735
Brayden Point726
Oliver Bjorkstrand657
Corey Perry638
Ryan McDonagh639
Darren Raddysh5810
Victor Hedman5811
Yanni Gourde5812
J.J. Moser5813
Erik Cernak5714
Pontus Holmberg5615
Zemgus Girgensons5416
Conor Geekie5017
Scott Sabourin4918
Charle-Edouard D'Astous46
Nikita Kucherov882Anthony Cirelli863Brandon Hagel824Jake Guentzel735Brayden Point726Oliver Bjorkstrand657Corey Perry638Ryan McDonagh639Darren Raddysh5810Victor Hedman5811Yanni Gourde5812J.J. Moser5813Erik Cernak5714Pontus Holmberg5615Zemgus Girgensons5416Conor Geekie5017Scott Sabourin4918Charle-Edouard D'Astous46Goalies
TOR
1
Nicholas Robertson692
William Nylander673
Matias Maccelli634
Auston Matthews625
Jake McCabe576
Dakota Joshua567
Oliver Ekman-Larsson558
John Tavares559
Steven Lorentz5310
Jacob Quillan5311
Morgan Rielly5212
Max Domi5213
Calle Jarnkrok5114
Brandon Carlo5115
Matthew Knies4816
Simon Benoit4717
Troy Stecher4618
Easton Cowan41
Nicholas Robertson692William Nylander673Matias Maccelli634Auston Matthews625Jake McCabe576Dakota Joshua567Oliver Ekman-Larsson558John Tavares559Steven Lorentz5310Jacob Quillan5311Morgan Rielly5212Max Domi5213Calle Jarnkrok5114Brandon Carlo5115Matthew Knies4816Simon Benoit4717Troy Stecher4618Easton Cowan41Goalies
ShootingPlaymakingDefense & physicalFaceoffsOn-ice xG tiltGoaltendingNegative playsnumber = Game Alpha
Box score
Period 1
Period 3
| Goals (SOG) | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 4 (12) | 0 (7) | 1 (14) | 5 |
| TOR | 1 (11) | 0 (8) | 1 (10) | 2 |
| TBL | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 1/5 | Power play | 0/4 |
| 26 | Hits | 22 |
| 12 | Blocked shots | 12 |
| 5 | Takeaways | 4 |
| 12 | Giveaways | 15 |
| 22 | Faceoff wins | 31 |
| TBL | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Goals | 2 |
| 5.16 | Expected goals | 3.86 |
| 3.31 | 5v5 xG | 2.84 |
| 1.06 | Power-play xG | 0.94 |
| 56 | Shot attempts | 47 |
| 33 | On goal | 29 |
| 25 | High-danger | 18 |
| 3 | Rebound chances | 3 |
| 11 | Missed | 6 |
| 12 | Blocked | 12 |
| 0.092 | xG per attempt | 0.082 |
| 29 ft | Avg shot distance | 26 ft |
Click any shot marker to replay the event in 3D.
GoalHigh-danger (xG > 0.15)Low-dangerMissed / blockedMarker size = xG79 of 103 attempts shown