Regular season

Nikita Nesterenko

Anaheim Ducks · C · #13

Bottom-six playerDepth Forward?9 points in 29 games in a supporting role

HT: 6'2"
WT: 203 lb
Age: 24
Shoots: L
From: Brooklyn, USA
Draft: 2019 MIN · R6 #172

58Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

2222pctl

3636pctl

4848pctl

1717pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.3134pctl

0.033pctl

0.2858pctl

1.125pctl

-250pctl

016pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

3.5%38pctl

2.0061pctl

0.002pctl

Def Suppression?

0.027pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP

1.013pctl

0.071pctl

0:0524pctl

0:5149pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 9 GP tracked · 2h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

52.1%69pctl

O-zone deployment?

50%51pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

16.8 min13pctl

Support received?

17.6 min39pctl

D-zone deployment?

50%49pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0855pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.9156pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.3150pctl

0.93×18pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.08/gm97pctl

Pressure escape rate?

13.0%100pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 329 EV min

General Offense

4.9337

7.6748

Shot Setups/60?

0.5529

Chance Setups/60?

0.5536

Primary Contributions/60?

5.4833

Rebounds Created/60?

0.1827

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0034

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.5548

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.1833

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0040

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.0027

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.8366

Rush Offense/60?

7.4847

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.5538

0.5533

0.0026

Deflections/60?

1.4653

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.7378

Entries Finished/60?

0.7350

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.5560

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

0.7330

0.0023

0.7343

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0038

Forechecking

5.4863

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0044

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$0.81M

cap hit

$1.64M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

B

Good value (+$0.8M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Nikita Nesterenko	58	Depth Forward	9 P · 29 GP	$0.81M	$1.64M	B+$0.8M	this player
Jesperi Kotkaniemi	55	Depth Forward	9 P · 42 GP	$4.82M	$1.16M	F−$3.7M	83%
Ben Meyers	59	Depth Forward	15 P · 52 GP	$0.78M	$1.83M	B+$1.1M	80%
Michael Eyssimont	62	Depth Forward	18 P · 56 GP	$1.45M	$2.46M	B+$1.0M	80%
Phillip Danault	55	Depth Forward	17 P · 75 GP	$5.50M	$1.16M	F−$4.3M	77%

Chemistry

Finishes from

assisters on Nikita’s goals

Creates for

goals Nikita assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

1 pts · 0 G · 1 A · 13 shots in last 10Steady(-0.2 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs VGK

0P

0G 0A

vs VGK 11-22

0G 0A · 0 shots · 7:49 TOI

vs VAN

0P

0G 0A

vs VAN 11-26

0G 0A · 3 shots · 11:22 TOI

vs LAK

0P

0G 0A

vs LAK 11-28

0G 0A · 1 shots · 14:03 TOI

@ CHI

0P

0G 0A

@ CHI 11-30

0G 0A · 0 shots · 9:48 TOI

vs SJS

1P

0G 1A

vs SJS 12-29

0G 1A · 3 shots · 12:39 TOI

vs TBL

0P

0G 0A

vs TBL 12-31

0G 0A · 1 shots · 13:24 TOI

vs MIN

0P

0G 0A

vs MIN 01-02

0G 0A · 0 shots · 14:47 TOI

@ WSH

0P

0G 0A

@ WSH 01-05

0G 0A · 3 shots · 12:25 TOI

@ BUF

0P

0G 0A

@ BUF 01-10

0G 0A · 1 shots · 10:47 TOI

vs DAL

0P

0G 0A

vs DAL 01-13

0G 0A · 1 shots · 11:27 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)78 events shown

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2022-23	Anaheim Ducks	9	1	0	1	-3
2023-24	Anaheim Ducks	3	1	0	1	0
2024-25	Anaheim Ducks	20	4	2	6	-4
2025-26	Anaheim Ducks	29	1	8	9	-2
Career	1 team	61	7	10	17	-9