Regular season

Justin Kirkland

Minnesota Wild · C · #23

Depth playerDepth Forward?2 points in 20 games in a supporting role

HT: 6'3"
WT: 183 lb
Age: 29
Shoots: L
From: Winnipeg, CAN
Draft: 2014 NSH · R3 #62

53Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

2222pctl

2121pctl

2323pctl

2323pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.103pctl

0.058pctl

0.054pctl

0.62pctl

+163pctl

016pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

2.7%28pctl

0.406pctl

0.002pctl

Def Suppression?

-0.055pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP

50.0%54pctl

D-Zone FO %?

52.8%69pctl

6.343pctl

0.2114pctl

0:029pctl

1:3772pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 8 GP tracked · 1h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

49.5%49pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

16.5 min5pctl

Support received?

15.7 min94pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.004pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.3123pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.107pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.05/gm99pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 163 EV min

General Offense

3.3031

6.2436

Shot Setups/60?

0.0030

Chance Setups/60?

0.0030

Primary Contributions/60?

3.3030

Rebounds Created/60?

0.0030

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0039

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.0030

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.0031

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0043

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.0034

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.8461

Rush Offense/60?

6.2438

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.3735

0.7346

0.0033

Deflections/60?

2.5769

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0034

Entries Finished/60?

0.3734

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.0030

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

3.3070

0.3757

2.9470

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0042

Forechecking

8.4565

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0046

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$0.90M

cap hit

$0.92M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

C

Fair market deal (+$0.0M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Justin Kirkland	53	Depth Forward	2 P · 20 GP	$0.90M	$0.92M	C+$0.0M	this player
Ben Jones	53	Depth Forward	3 P · 28 GP	$0.78M	$0.92M	C+$0.1M	92%
Jesperi Kotkaniemi	55	Depth Forward	9 P · 42 GP	$4.82M	$1.16M	F−$3.7M	90%
Hendrix Lapierre	52	Depth Forward	16 P · 74 GP	$0.85M	$0.86M	C+$0.0M	89%
Sam Lafferty	50	Depth Forward	2 P · 29 GP	$2.00M	$0.86M	D−$1.1M	89%

Chemistry

Finishes from

assisters on Justin’s goals

Creates for

goals Justin assisted on

Joel Farabee11 as primary

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

1 pts · 1 G · 0 A · 6 shots in last 10Steady(+0.2 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs SEA

0P

0G 0A

vs SEA 01-05

0G 0A · 0 shots · 8:47 TOI

@ BOS

0P

0G 0A

@ BOS 01-08

0G 0A · 1 shots · 10:28 TOI

@ PIT

0P

0G 0A

@ PIT 01-10

0G 0A · 1 shots · 8:00 TOI

@ CBJ

0P

0G 0A

@ CBJ 01-13

0G 0A · 0 shots · 9:57 TOI

@ CHI

0P

0G 0A

@ CHI 01-15

0G 0A · 0 shots · 9:03 TOI

vs NYI

1P

1G 0A

vs NYI 01-17

1G 0A · 1 shots · 10:45 TOI

vs NJD

0P

0G 0A

vs NJD 01-19

0G 0A · 1 shots · 11:58 TOI

vs PIT

0P

0G 0A

vs PIT 01-21

0G 0A · 0 shots · 9:51 TOI

vs ANA

0P

0G 0A

vs ANA 01-25

0G 0A · 1 shots · 12:02 TOI

@ MIN

0P

0G 0A

@ MIN 01-29

0G 0A · 1 shots · 10:35 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)80 events shown

Defensive floor: 11 blocks · 1 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2022-23	Anaheim Ducks	7	0	0	0	-3
2023-24	Arizona Coyotes	2	0	0	0	0
2024-25	Calgary Flames	21	2	6	8	6
2025-26	Calgary Flames	20	1	1	2	1
Career	3 teams	50	3	7	10	4