Game Lab
Every shot with xG, win probability, player impact, and 3D replays
Tampa Bay Lightning 2@Buffalo Sabres 4
2026-04-06TBL · BUF
CF%?
49.5%·50.5%
xGF%?
45.7%·54.3%
HDCF%?
50.0%·50.0%
5v5 xGF%?
53.5%·46.5%
5v5 CF%?
52.9%·47.1%
?
BUF wins ↑TBL wins ↓
TBL 43%Deserved to win?57% BUF
the game's chances, replayed · 2.48 xG vs 2.86 xG
The Impact Report?
every skater, rated by our model
TBL 2@BUF 4
The Impact Report · hockeyalpha.com
2026-04-06 · Game Alpha: one night on the 40-99 scale
★ 1st star · our model’s pickJake GuentzelTBL · 1G · 1A · 0.81 ixG88
★ 2nd star · our model’s pickJason ZuckerBUF · 1G · 1A · 0.50 ixG77
★ 3rd star · our model’s pickBowen ByramBUF · 2A · 0.00 ixG · 1 gv72TBL
1Jake Guentzel882
Darren Raddysh713
Brayden Point664
Nikita Kucherov665
Gage Goncalves596
J.J. Moser567
Oliver Bjorkstrand568
Emil Lilleberg559
Scott Sabourin5310
Ryan McDonagh5311
Mitchell Chaffee5212
Corey Perry5213
Erik Cernak5214
Nick Paul5015
Pontus Holmberg4916
Zemgus Girgensons4917
Charle-Edouard D'Astous4718
Yanni Gourde44
Jake Guentzel882Darren Raddysh713Brayden Point664Nikita Kucherov665Gage Goncalves596J.J. Moser567Oliver Bjorkstrand568Emil Lilleberg559Scott Sabourin5310Ryan McDonagh5311Mitchell Chaffee5212Corey Perry5213Erik Cernak5214Nick Paul5015Pontus Holmberg4916Zemgus Girgensons4917Charle-Edouard D'Astous4718Yanni Gourde44Goalies
ShootingPlaymakingDefense & physicalFaceoffsOn-ice xG tiltGoaltendingNegative playsnumber = Game Alpha
Box score
Period 1
Period 2
Period 3
| Goals (SOG) | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 1 (8) | 1 (8) | 0 (9) | 2 |
| BUF | 2 (11) | 1 (14) | 1 (5) | 4 |
| TBL | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 1/7 | Power play | 0/6 |
| 28 | Hits | 22 |
| 11 | Blocked shots | 10 |
| 5 | Takeaways | 4 |
| 18 | Giveaways | 13 |
| 31 | Faceoff wins | 28 |
| TBL | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Goals | 4 |
| 3.63 | Expected goals | 4.31 |
| 2.28 | 5v5 xG | 1.99 |
| 1.31 | Power-play xG | 1.26 |
| 52 | Shot attempts | 53 |
| 25 | On goal | 30 |
| 14 | High-danger | 14 |
| 1 | Rebound chances | 5 |
| 16 | Missed | 13 |
| 11 | Blocked | 10 |
| 0.070 | xG per attempt | 0.081 |
| 34 ft | Avg shot distance | 32 ft |
Click any shot marker to replay the event in 3D.
GoalHigh-danger (xG > 0.15)Low-dangerMissed / blockedMarker size = xG84 of 105 attempts shown