Game Lab
Every shot with xG, win probability, player impact, and 3D replays
Washington Capitals 2@Buffalo Sabres 1
2026-03-12WSH · BUF
CF%?
43.2%·56.8%
xGF%?
48.7%·51.3%
HDCF%?
50.0%·50.0%
5v5 xGF%?
42.7%·57.3%
5v5 CF%?
42.4%·57.6%
?
BUF wins ↑WSH wins ↓
WSH 41%Deserved to win?59% BUF
the game's chances, replayed · 2.59 xG vs 3.10 xG
The Impact Report?
every skater, rated by our model
WSH 2@BUF 1
The Impact Report · hockeyalpha.com
2026-03-12 · Game Alpha: one night on the 40-99 scale
★ 1st star · our model’s pickCharlie LindgrenWSH · 3 gv · 29 sv · 1 GA75
★ 2nd star · our model’s pickSam CarrickBUF · 1G · 0.11 ixG · 1 blk67
★ 3rd star · our model’s pickJakob ChychrunWSH · 1G · 0.11 ixG · 1 blk67WSH
1Jakob Chychrun672
Ryan Leonard633
Aliaksei Protas594
Pierre-Luc Dubois585
Connor McMichael586
Trevor van Riemsdyk577
Alex Ovechkin578
Tom Wilson579
Brandon Duhaime5510
Dylan Strome5411
Justin Sourdif5412
Matt Roy5313
Martin Fehérváry5314
Timothy Liljegren5115
Hendrix Lapierre5116
Rasmus Sandin5017
Anthony Beauvillier49
Jakob Chychrun672Ryan Leonard633Aliaksei Protas594Pierre-Luc Dubois585Connor McMichael586Trevor van Riemsdyk577Alex Ovechkin578Tom Wilson579Brandon Duhaime5510Dylan Strome5411Justin Sourdif5412Matt Roy5313Martin Fehérváry5314Timothy Liljegren5115Hendrix Lapierre5116Rasmus Sandin5017Anthony Beauvillier49Goalies
BUF
1Sam Carrick672
Beck Malenstyn663
Bowen Byram624
Tage Thompson615
Owen Power606
Ryan McLeod607
Peyton Krebs588
Josh Norris589
Mattias Samuelsson5810
Jason Zucker5811
Josh Doan5412
Tanner Pearson5313
Zach Benson5214
Noah Ostlund5115
Luke Schenn5016
Rasmus Dahlin5017
Jack Quinn5018
Ethen Frank4919
Logan Stanley47
Sam Carrick672Beck Malenstyn663Bowen Byram624Tage Thompson615Owen Power606Ryan McLeod607Peyton Krebs588Josh Norris589Mattias Samuelsson5810Jason Zucker5811Josh Doan5412Tanner Pearson5313Zach Benson5214Noah Ostlund5115Luke Schenn5016Rasmus Dahlin5017Jack Quinn5018Ethen Frank4919Logan Stanley47Goalies
ShootingPlaymakingDefense & physicalFaceoffsOn-ice xG tiltGoaltendingNegative playsnumber = Game Alpha
Box score
Period 1
Period 2
Period 3
| Goals (SOG) | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 0 (3) | 1 (6) | 1 (13) | 2 |
| BUF | 1 (15) | 0 (10) | 0 (5) | 1 |
| WSH | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 0/2 | Power play | 0/2 |
| 22 | Hits | 24 |
| 11 | Blocked shots | 17 |
| 9 | Takeaways | 5 |
| 17 | Giveaways | 13 |
| 18 | Faceoff wins | 27 |
| WSH | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Goals | 1 |
| 4.44 | Expected goals | 4.67 |
| 2.56 | 5v5 xG | 3.43 |
| 0.83 | Power-play xG | 1.08 |
| 51 | Shot attempts | 67 |
| 22 | On goal | 30 |
| 13 | High-danger | 13 |
| 1 | Rebound chances | 3 |
| 18 | Missed | 20 |
| 11 | Blocked | 17 |
| 0.087 | xG per attempt | 0.070 |
| 36 ft | Avg shot distance | 32 ft |
Click any shot marker to replay the event in 3D.
GoalHigh-danger (xG > 0.15)Low-dangerMissed / blockedMarker size = xG90 of 118 attempts shown