Game Lab
Every shot with xG, win probability, player impact, and 3D replays
Buffalo Sabres 6@Tampa Bay Lightning 2
2026-02-28BUF · TBL
CF%?
45.8%·54.2%
xGF%?
48.0%·52.0%
HDCF%?
45.7%·54.3%
5v5 xGF%?
39.3%·60.7%
5v5 CF%?
40.9%·59.1%
?
TBL wins ↑BUF wins ↓
BUF 60%Deserved to win?40% TBL
the game's chances, replayed · 4.06 xG vs 3.47 xG
The Impact Report?
every skater, rated by our model · on-ice tilt unavailable
BUF 6@TBL 2
The Impact Report · hockeyalpha.com
2026-02-28 · Game Alpha: one night on the 40-99 scale
★ 1st star · our model’s pickUkko-Pekka LuukkonenBUF · 1 gv · 36 sv · 2 GA82
★ 2nd star · our model’s pickRasmus DahlinBUF · 1G · 2A · 0.28 ixG79
★ 3rd star · our model’s pickJosh NorrisBUF · 2G · 0.22 ixG · 1 gv77BUF
1Rasmus Dahlin792Josh Norris773
Tage Thompson744
Zach Metsa725
Alex Tuch696
Bowen Byram697
Peyton Krebs688
Josh Doan639
Jack Quinn6110
Owen Power6011
Beck Malenstyn6012
Ryan McLeod5813
Zach Benson5714
Mattias Samuelsson5515
Noah Ostlund5316
Jason Zucker5217
Tyson Kozak4818
Michael Kesselring45
Rasmus Dahlin792Josh Norris773Tage Thompson744Zach Metsa725Alex Tuch696Bowen Byram697Peyton Krebs688Josh Doan639Jack Quinn6110Owen Power6011Beck Malenstyn6012Ryan McLeod5813Zach Benson5714Mattias Samuelsson5515Noah Ostlund5316Jason Zucker5217Tyson Kozak4818Michael Kesselring45Goalies
TBL
1
Victor Hedman752
Oliver Bjorkstrand733
Dominic James704
Darren Raddysh655
Yanni Gourde586
Brayden Point577
Zemgus Girgensons558
Erik Cernak559
Gage Goncalves5510
Emil Lilleberg5411
Anthony Cirelli5312
Pontus Holmberg5213
Nikita Kucherov5214
J.J. Moser5215
Brandon Hagel5116
Charle-Edouard D'Astous5017
Jake Guentzel40
Victor Hedman752Oliver Bjorkstrand733Dominic James704Darren Raddysh655Yanni Gourde586Brayden Point577Zemgus Girgensons558Erik Cernak559Gage Goncalves5510Emil Lilleberg5411Anthony Cirelli5312Pontus Holmberg5213Nikita Kucherov5214J.J. Moser5215Brandon Hagel5116Charle-Edouard D'Astous5017Jake Guentzel40Goalies
ShootingPlaymakingDefense & physicalFaceoffsOn-ice xG tiltGoaltendingNegative playsnumber = Game Alpha
Box score
Period 1
Period 2
Period 3
| Goals (SOG) | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 4 (10) | 1 (20) | 1 (5) | 6 |
| TBL | 0 (14) | 1 (12) | 1 (12) | 2 |
| BUF | TBL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1/10 | Power play | 0/6 |
| 16 | Hits | 28 |
| 5 | Blocked shots | 14 |
| 2 | Takeaways | 6 |
| 16 | Giveaways | 11 |
| 31 | Faceoff wins | 33 |
| BUF | TBL | |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Goals | 2 |
| 4.46 | Expected goals | 4.83 |
| 2.42 | 5v5 xG | 3.74 |
| 1.26 | Power-play xG | 0.80 |
| 55 | Shot attempts | 65 |
| 35 | On goal | 38 |
| 16 | High-danger | 19 |
| 2 | Rebound chances | 4 |
| 15 | Missed | 13 |
| 5 | Blocked | 14 |
| 0.081 | xG per attempt | 0.074 |
| 28 ft | Avg shot distance | 30 ft |
Click any shot marker to replay the event in 3D.
GoalHigh-danger (xG > 0.15)Low-dangerMissed / blockedMarker size = xG101 of 120 attempts shown