Game Lab
Every shot with xG, win probability, player impact, and 3D replays
Buffalo Sabres 3@Tampa Bay Lightning 4
2026-02-03BUF · TBL
CF%?
45.4%·54.6%
xGF%?
47.5%·52.5%
HDCF%?
37.1%·62.9%
5v5 xGF%?
33.9%·66.1%
5v5 CF%?
39.2%·60.8%
?
TBL wins ↑BUF wins ↓
BUF 33%Deserved to win?67% TBL
the game's chances, replayed · 2.55 xG vs 3.53 xG
The Impact Report?
every skater, rated by our model
BUF 3@TBL 4
The Impact Report · hockeyalpha.com
2026-02-03 · Game Alpha: one night on the 40-99 scale
★ 1st star · our model’s pickNikita KucherovTBL · 1G · 3A · 0.64 ixG99
★ 2nd star · our model’s pickJake GuentzelTBL · 1G · 1A · 0.29 ixG82
★ 3rd star · our model’s pickDarren RaddyshTBL · 1G · 1A · 0.42 ixG77BUF
1
Mattias Samuelsson742
Ryan McLeod643
Rasmus Dahlin634
Tage Thompson635
Josh Doan626
Jack Quinn607
Konsta Helenius578
Peyton Krebs549
Tyson Kozak5310
Alex Tuch5211
Isak Rosen5012
Owen Power5013
Beck Malenstyn5014
Noah Ostlund4615
Jacob Bryson4516
Jason Zucker4517
Bowen Byram44
Mattias Samuelsson742Ryan McLeod643Rasmus Dahlin634Tage Thompson635Josh Doan626Jack Quinn607Konsta Helenius578Peyton Krebs549Tyson Kozak5310Alex Tuch5211Isak Rosen5012Owen Power5013Beck Malenstyn5014Noah Ostlund4615Jacob Bryson4516Jason Zucker4517Bowen Byram44Goalies
TBL
1Nikita Kucherov992Jake Guentzel823Darren Raddysh774
Oliver Bjorkstrand715
J.J. Moser626
Brandon Hagel617
Erik Cernak618
Dominic James599
Scott Sabourin5710
Yanni Gourde5711
Zemgus Girgensons5612
Jack Finley5613
Victor Hedman5514
Pontus Holmberg5415
Ryan McDonagh5416
Declan Carlile5217
Curtis Douglas5218
Gage Goncalves4919
Zach Metsa49
Nikita Kucherov992Jake Guentzel823Darren Raddysh774Oliver Bjorkstrand715J.J. Moser626Brandon Hagel617Erik Cernak618Dominic James599Scott Sabourin5710Yanni Gourde5711Zemgus Girgensons5612Jack Finley5613Victor Hedman5514Pontus Holmberg5415Ryan McDonagh5416Declan Carlile5217Curtis Douglas5218Gage Goncalves4919Zach Metsa49Goalies
ShootingPlaymakingDefense & physicalFaceoffsOn-ice xG tiltGoaltendingNegative playsnumber = Game Alpha
Box score
Period 1
Period 3
OT
| Goals (SOG) | 1 | 2 | 3 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 1 (9) | 0 (4) | 2 (8) | 0 (5) | 3 |
| TBL | 1 (13) | 0 (10) | 2 (11) | 1 (1) | 4 |
| BUF | TBL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1/3 | Power play | 2/2 |
| 13 | Hits | 26 |
| 11 | Blocked shots | 10 |
| 9 | Takeaways | 6 |
| 22 | Giveaways | 15 |
| 30 | Faceoff wins | 31 |
| BUF | TBL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Goals | 4 |
| 4.07 | Expected goals | 4.50 |
| 1.63 | 5v5 xG | 3.18 |
| 2.00 | Power-play xG | 0.86 |
| 49 | Shot attempts | 59 |
| 26 | On goal | 35 |
| 13 | High-danger | 22 |
| 1 | Rebound chances | 9 |
| 12 | Missed | 14 |
| 11 | Blocked | 10 |
| 0.083 | xG per attempt | 0.076 |
| 31 ft | Avg shot distance | 32 ft |
Click any shot marker to replay the event in 3D.
GoalHigh-danger (xG > 0.15)Low-dangerMissed / blockedMarker size = xG87 of 108 attempts shown