HockeyAlpha

Game Lab

Every shot with xG, win probability, player impact, and 3D replays

Minnesota Wild 5@Buffalo Sabres 4

2026-01-17
MIN · BUF

CF%?

59.0%·41.0%

xGF%?

60.0%·40.0%

HDCF%?

54.3%·45.7%

5v5 xGF%?

60.8%·39.2%

5v5 CF%?

59.3%·40.7%

?
BUF wins ↑MIN wins ↓
MIN 70%Deserved to win?30% BUF

the game's chances, replayed · 4.14 xG vs 2.92 xG

The Impact Report?

every skater, rated by our model

MIN 5@BUF 4

The Impact Report · hockeyalpha.com

2026-01-17 · Game Alpha: one night on the 40-99 scale

★ 1st star · our model’s pickKirill KaprizovMIN · 3A · 0.64 ixG · 1 tk89★ 2nd star · our model’s pickVladimir TarasenkoMIN · 1G · 1A · 0.69 ixG84★ 3rd star · our model’s pickMats ZuccarelloMIN · 1G · 1A · 0.53 ixG83

MIN

1Kirill Kaprizov892Vladimir Tarasenko843Mats Zuccarello834Quinn Hughes795Ryan Hartman796Marcus Foligno737Jared Spurgeon668Danila Yurov629Brock Faber6210Jake Middleton6111Ben Jones6012Yakov Trenin5613Tyler Pitlick5514Nico Sturm5515Vinnie Hinostroza5416Hunter Haight5317Daemon Hunt5118David Jiricek47

Goalies

1Filip Gustavsson55

BUF

1Jack Quinn802Ryan McLeod773Jason Zucker714Rasmus Dahlin695Alex Tuch696Tage Thompson667Peyton Krebs668Mattias Samuelsson609Noah Ostlund5310Josh Doan5111Zach Metsa5112Tyson Kozak5013Owen Power4914Bowen Byram4815Michael Kesselring4816Beck Malenstyn4817Jordan Greenway4718Zach Benson47

Goalies

1Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen52
ShootingPlaymakingDefense & physicalFaceoffsOn-ice xG tiltGoaltendingNegative playsnumber = Game Alpha

Box score

Period 1

9:19MIN

Marcus Foligno from Vladimir Tarasenko, Ben Jones

10:05BUF

Ryan McLeod from Jack Quinn, Jason Zucker

19:52MIN

Ryan Hartman from Quinn Hughes, Kirill Kaprizov

Period 2

1:08MIN

Vladimir Tarasenko from Jared Spurgeon, Danila Yurov

10:07BUF

Peyton Krebs from Mattias Samuelsson

11:34BUF

Jack Quinn from Rasmus Dahlin, Jason Zucker

16:07BUF

Alex Tuch from Tage Thompson, Ryan McLeod

PP
17:04MIN

Quinn Hughes from Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello

OT

1:46MIN

Mats Zuccarello from Kirill Kaprizov, Filip Gustavsson

PP
Goals (SOG)123OTT
MIN2 (7)2 (18)0 (10)1 (1)5
BUF1 (6)3 (9)0 (9)0 (0)4
MINBUF
1/6Power play1/6
31Hits21
20Blocked shots10
6Takeaways3
11Giveaways10
32Faceoff wins26
MINBUF
5Goals4
6.55Expected goals4.36
4.635v5 xG2.99
1.86Power-play xG0.93
69Shot attempts48
36On goal24
19High-danger16
6Rebound chances2
13Missed14
20Blocked10
0.095xG per attempt0.091
27 ftAvg shot distance28 ft

Click any shot marker to replay the event in 3D.

MIN attackingBUF attacking
GoalHigh-danger (xG > 0.15)Low-dangerMissed / blockedMarker size = xG87 of 117 attempts shown