HockeyAlpha

Game Lab

Every shot with xG, win probability, player impact, and 3D replays

Carolina Hurricanes 5@Toronto Maple Leafs 4

2025-11-09
CAR · TOR

CF%?

71.8%·28.2%

xGF%?

68.2%·31.8%

HDCF%?

66.7%·33.3%

5v5 xGF%?

73.1%·26.9%

5v5 CF%?

73.1%·26.9%

?
TOR wins ↑CAR wins ↓
CAR 85%Deserved to win?15% TOR

the game's chances, replayed · 4.25 xG vs 1.97 xG

The Impact Report?

every skater, rated by our model · on-ice tilt unavailable

CAR 5@TOR 4

The Impact Report · hockeyalpha.com

2025-11-09 · Game Alpha: one night on the 40-99 scale

★ 1st star · our model’s pickJohn TavaresTOR · 1G · 1A · 0.65 ixG82★ 2nd star · our model’s pickNikolaj EhlersCAR · 2A · 0.33 ixG · 3 tk77★ 3rd star · our model’s pickAuston MatthewsTOR · 1G · 1A · 0.45 ixG76

CAR

1Nikolaj Ehlers772Logan Stankoven743Sebastian Aho714Taylor Hall705Seth Jarvis706K'Andre Miller697Sean Walker698William Carrier669Andrei Svechnikov6610Jackson Blake6111Alexander Nikishin6112Jesperi Kotkaniemi5813Jordan Martinook5514Jordan Staal5415Charles Alexis Legault5316Mike Reilly5317Eric Robinson5218Matias Maccelli5219Joel Nystrom51

Goalies

1Brandon Bussi40

TOR

1John Tavares822Auston Matthews763William Nylander764Matthew Knies735Bobby McMann676Jake McCabe667Nicholas Robertson658Morgan Rielly619Nicolas Roy6010Simon Benoit5711Sammy Blais5612Oliver Ekman-Larsson5413Brandon Carlo5414Max Domi5215Calle Jarnkrok5216Dakota Joshua5217Philippe Myers44

Goalies

1Dennis Hildeby57
ShootingPlaymakingDefense & physicalFaceoffsOn-ice xG tiltGoaltendingNegative playsnumber = Game Alpha

Box score

Period 1

5:00TOR

William Nylander from Matthew Knies, Morgan Rielly

8:34CAR

Sebastian Aho from Nikolaj Ehlers, K'Andre Miller

PP
14:31CAR

Seth Jarvis from Andrei Svechnikov, Alexander Nikishin

15:31TOR

John Tavares from Bobby McMann, Nicholas Robertson

19:01TOR

William Nylander from John Tavares, Auston Matthews

PP

Period 2

11:03TOR

Auston Matthews from Jake McCabe, Matthew Knies

16:51CAR

Sean Walker from William Carrier

Period 3

3:20CAR

Taylor Hall from Jackson Blake, Logan Stankoven

12:13CAR

Logan Stankoven from K'Andre Miller, Nikolaj Ehlers

Goals (SOG)123T
CAR2 (12)1 (13)2 (22)5
TOR3 (10)1 (8)0 (2)4
CARTOR
1/5Power play1/4
13Hits21
26Blocked shots10
6Takeaways3
12Giveaways10
30Faceoff wins42
CARTOR
5Goals4
6.65Expected goals3.10
4.745v5 xG1.74
1.87Power-play xG1.35
89Shot attempts35
47On goal20
28High-danger14
6Rebound chances3
16Missed5
26Blocked10
0.075xG per attempt0.088
31 ftAvg shot distance29 ft

Click any shot marker to replay the event in 3D.

CAR attackingTOR attacking
GoalHigh-danger (xG > 0.15)Low-dangerMissed / blockedMarker size = xG88 of 124 attempts shown