HockeyAlpha

Game Lab

Every shot with xG, win probability, player impact, and 3D replays

New Jersey Devils 5@Toronto Maple Leafs 2

2025-10-21
NJD · TOR

CF%?

52.1%·47.9%

xGF%?

54.7%·45.3%

HDCF%?

60.6%·39.4%

5v5 xGF%?

51.3%·48.7%

5v5 CF%?

53.3%·46.7%

?
TOR wins ↑NJD wins ↓
NJD 63%Deserved to win?37% TOR

the game's chances, replayed · 3.22 xG vs 2.55 xG

The Impact Report?

every skater, rated by our model · on-ice tilt unavailable

NJD 5@TOR 2

The Impact Report · hockeyalpha.com

2025-10-21 · Game Alpha: one night on the 40-99 scale

★ 1st star · our model’s pickJesper BrattNJD · 3A · 0.21 ixG · 1 gv85★ 2nd star · our model’s pickJack HughesNJD · 3G · 0.70 ixG · 1 blk84★ 3rd star · our model’s pickJohn TavaresTOR · 1G · 1A · 0.38 ixG81

NJD

1Jesper Bratt852Jack Hughes843Luke Glendening694Brenden Dillon665Brett Pesce666Luke Hughes647Cody Glass648Timo Meier609Arseny Gritsyuk6010Simon Nemec5711Paul Cotter5512Dougie Hamilton5413Brian Halonen5414Jonas Siegenthaler5215Connor Brown5216Dawson Mercer5217Chris Tanev5218Ondrej Palat5119Nico Hischier50

Goalies

1Jake Allen66

TOR

1John Tavares812William Nylander683Matias Maccelli634Dakota Joshua625Oliver Ekman-Larsson596Matthew Knies597Auston Matthews578Max Domi569Bobby McMann5410Simon Benoit5411Nicholas Robertson5312Nicolas Roy5313Morgan Rielly5214Steven Lorentz5215Jake McCabe5216Brandon Carlo5017Calle Jarnkrok49

Goalies

1Anthony Stolarz56
ShootingPlaymakingDefense & physicalFaceoffsOn-ice xG tiltGoaltendingNegative playsnumber = Game Alpha

Box score

Period 1

6:36TOR

John Tavares from Oliver Ekman-Larsson, William Nylander

Period 2

1:27NJD

Jack Hughes from Jesper Bratt, Brett Pesce

3:20NJD

Cody Glass from Timo Meier, Luke Hughes

PP
4:54NJD

Brenden Dillon from Luke Glendening, Arseny Gritsyuk

7:03TOR

Matias Maccelli from William Nylander, John Tavares

16:17NJD

Jack Hughes from Jesper Bratt, Simon Nemec

Period 3

19:30NJD

Jack Hughes from Jesper Bratt

EN
Goals (SOG)123T
NJD0 (9)4 (16)1 (10)5
TOR1 (7)1 (10)0 (8)2
NJDTOR
1/4Power play0/4
21Hits22
17Blocked shots19
6Takeaways7
25Giveaways17
27Faceoff wins28
NJDTOR
5Goals2
5.42Expected goals4.48
3.235v5 xG3.06
1.55Power-play xG1.30
63Shot attempts58
35On goal25
20High-danger13
3Rebound chances3
11Missed14
17Blocked19
0.086xG per attempt0.077
32 ftAvg shot distance29 ft

Click any shot marker to replay the event in 3D.

NJD attackingTOR attacking
GoalHigh-danger (xG > 0.15)Low-dangerMissed / blockedMarker size = xG85 of 121 attempts shown